ATB's latest forecast suggests that the Bank of Canada is likely to maintain its 'pause, wait and see' stance on interest rates before lowering its policy rate. This delay in rate cuts is expected to impact households and businesses in the coming year. Despite this, the Alberta economy is projected to slow to 2.1% real GDP growth in 2024 and then pick up to 2.7% in 2025.
Key factors influencing the Alberta economy include a revitalized energy sector, population growth surges, and emerging sectors such as biofuels, petrochemicals, and technology. However, the speed bump created by higher interest rates, along with other disruptions like wildfires and strikes, have challenged Alberta's growth.
In 2024, Alberta is expected to remain a growth leader in Canada, although it will face challenges from higher financing costs and loan resets. The province's sustained population growth is anticipated to contribute to consumer spending, housing demand, and an expanded labor supply. Despite the impacts felt by households and businesses, Alberta enters the year in relatively good shape.
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