Separation Could Cost Alberta $50–170B in Five Years as Farkas Pushes Council to Weigh In

A University of Calgary School of Public Policy report released this week puts a hard number on leaving Canada: establishing a country could cost Alberta $50 billion to $170 billion in the first five years alone, on top of growth and fiscal hits that vary sharply depending on how the break goes. Finance Minister Jason Nixon’s independent advisory panel, chaired by Jack Mintz, largely concurred that short-run costs are high and long-run benefits uncertain — one month before Albertans vote Oct. 19 on whether the province should remain in Canada or start a legal path toward a binding separation referendum.

The report’s own scenarios show how wide the gap is between a relatively smooth deal and a prolonged fight:

In Calgary, Mayor Jeromy Farkas called the findings “a huge warning sign” and is pushing for an urgent or special council meeting so the city can endorse staying in a “strong and united Team Canada.” Ward 1 Coun. Kim Tyers says she will not support a special meeting, arguing those are for extraordinary municipal emergencies and that the referendum does not meet that bar. City lawyers have also reminded council that the municipality cannot register as a referendum advertiser or spend over $1,000 promoting an outcome, though councillors may speak personally. The next regular council date is Sept. 22 — the first clear window for the fight to land in public.