Calgary Halved Its Housing Affordability Gap — But Starts Are Cooling Fast

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation says Calgary is one of the few major markets where the supply gap to restore pre-pandemic affordability by 2036 has narrowed — nearly halved from the previous estimate, according to CMHC Prairies economist Taylor Pardy. The agency still figures the city needs about 4,000 to 5,000 extra homes a year, or roughly 23,000 to 24,000 total starts annually over the next decade, to stay on that path.

The problem is the pace of building has slipped. CMHC puts Calgary on track for about 19,000 new homes this year, down from roughly 27,000 starts last year. First-half 2026 starts were down more than 20 per cent year over year, with purpose-built rental — the engine of the recent boom — falling more than 30 per cent even while still making up about 60 per cent of starts. Completions are still rising as the earlier pipeline finishes, which can mask how sharp the slowdown will look two years from now.

Housing advocates are already linking the cooling numbers to City Hall’s decision to repeal citywide rezoning, which took effect in August and returned hundreds of thousands of properties to prior low-density rules. More Neighbours Calgary has warned that narrowing the gap is good news, but repeal without a strong replacement reverses the conditions that boost supply. Mayor Farkas has defended the repeal as an infrastructure readiness issue while saying Calgary still has to keep building affordable homes. CMHC’s message is narrower and harder: the affordability win is real, and fragile.